The takeaway
ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+3.1%) and softest in July (−9.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 10% of years, averaging −9.2%, roughly 11.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000's most dependable month has been March, higher in 6 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+2.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−15.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 60% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward March — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 6 of 10 Marches.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.1%) and median (+2.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 13.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.0 points on average.
On the other side of the ledger, July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−9.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −53.1% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (March, +3.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −9.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +3.1% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade