The takeaway
ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+0.5%) and softest in May (−14.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 10% of years, averaging −11.6%, roughly 13.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors's most dependable month has been April, higher in 5 of 10 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (−1.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−15.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 80% of the time versus 50% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's little seasonal signal to find. No month pulls clear: April is nominally the steadiest, yet at 5 of 10 Aprils it's barely better than a coin toss.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Aprils run ahead of the earlier years.
The honest read is that the calendar is close to noise here — better treated as background than a reason to act. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +0.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −14.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +0.5% and closing higher in 5 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −14.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade