The takeaway
Stellar Bancorp, Inc. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in November (+6.0%) and softest in April (−2.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +4.9%, about +2.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Stellar Bancorp, Inc.'s most dependable month has been November, higher in 8 of 9 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+3.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Stellar Bancorp, Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Stellar Bancorp, Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 89% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in 8 of 9 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+6.0%) and median (+4.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−2.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −30.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
November has now closed higher 8 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (November, +6.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −2.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +6.0% and closing higher in 8 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade