The takeaway
PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+0.4%) and softest in September (−0.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 70% of years, averaging +0.5%, roughly 1.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund's most dependable month has been January, higher in 8 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+0.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−2.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. January stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Januaries, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+0.4%) and median (+0.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.5% spread). Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +0.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
The lift is near-universal — strength runs through almost every month of the year, not one window. On the other side of the ledger, September is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and April.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — January is the firmest (+0.4%) and September the softest (−0.2%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
January has been the strongest, averaging +0.4% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade