The takeaway
Strive 500 ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in June (+4.6%) and softest in April (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +2.0% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Strive 500 ETF's most dependable month has been June, higher in 3 of 3 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+4.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−3.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Strive 500 ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Strive 500 ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, June has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. June stands out, higher in all 3 Junes, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+4.6%) and median (+4.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.8% spread), and even its worst June in 4 years lost only 3.6% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.4 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, December, and September.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2022 its best month (June, +4.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +4.6% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade