The takeaway
Simplify Volatility Premium ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in May (+4.5%) and softest in April (−3.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 60% of years, averaging −0.5%, roughly 2.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Simplify Volatility Premium ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 5 of 5 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+3.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−5.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Simplify Volatility Premium ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Simplify Volatility Premium ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and May is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 5 Mays, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.5%) and median (+4.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: May's returns vary by just 1.8% year to year, and even its worst May in 5 years lost only 2.6% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.8 points on average. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
May anchors a run, too: the May-through-August window has been the fund's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−3.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, July, and February.
May has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a fund this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (May, +4.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −3.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +4.5% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade