The takeaway
TAL Education Group shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+7.8%) and softest in May (−0.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 50% of years, averaging −3.3%, roughly 5.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
TAL Education Group's most dependable month has been February, higher in 8 of 10 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+8.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is TAL Education Group’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating TAL Education Group’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. February stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Februaries, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
The headline flatters a touch — its +7.8% average sits well above the +4.1% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Februaries. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 10.9% spread), and even its worst February in 10 years lost only 3.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: February has cleared the S&P 500 by +8.1 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: February lifts just 49% of stocks across the market.
A few other months pull their weight: January, April, and June have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: May is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, July, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −74.1% July in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, February's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: February aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (February), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +7.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −0.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +7.8% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade