The takeaway
Invesco Solar ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in May (+5.9%) and softest in September (−1.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 70% of years, averaging +5.7%, about +3.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco Solar ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 7 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+5.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−6.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco Solar ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco Solar ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: May, up in 7 of 10 Mays while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+5.9%) and median (+5.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 8.4% spread). Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +5.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and January. Its roughest month on record was a −31.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Mays run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (May, +5.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −1.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +5.9% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade