The takeaway
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+0.6%) and softest in July (−11.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 10% of years, averaging −11.3%, roughly 13.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares's most dependable month has been February, higher in 6 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+4.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−13.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 80% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The year leans February's way without overwhelming the rest of it: the fund has closed higher in 6 of 10 Februaries, its most dependable month if not a dominant one.
Its average (+0.6%) and median (+1.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 11.4% spread). Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: February has cleared the S&P 500 by +0.9 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: February lifts just 49% of stocks across the market.
On the other side of the ledger, July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 10 months that average a loss (−11.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, November, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −47.6% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Februaries run ahead of the earlier years.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +0.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −11.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +0.6% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −11.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade