The takeaway
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in March (+13.3%) and softest in January (−1.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 25% of years, averaging −1.2%, roughly 3.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp's most dependable month has been March, higher in 4 of 4 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+12.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−4.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: March, up in all 4 Marches while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+13.3%) and median (+13.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 3.6% spread), and even its worst March in 5 years lost only 8.6% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: March has cleared the S&P 500 by +12.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April, August, and September have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, January has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−1.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, October, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −12.1% May in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (March, +13.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (January, −1.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +13.3% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade