The takeaway
T. Rowe Price Growth ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in May (+6.7%) and softest in December (+0.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 67% of years, averaging +1.8% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
T. Rowe Price Growth ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 2 of 2 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+6.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−3.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is T. Rowe Price Growth ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating T. Rowe Price Growth ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent May history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. May stands out, higher in all 2 Mays, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+6.7%) and median (+6.7%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.4% spread), and even its worst May in 3 years lost only 6.2% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.0 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–November forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, December is the year's low point, though even there the fund has stayed positive on average (+0.8%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March and April.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2023 its best month (May, +6.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, +0.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +6.7% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.8%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade