The takeaway
iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+3.7%) and softest in April (−3.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +3.7%, about +1.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 4 of 4 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+2.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−5.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in all 4 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +3.7% average sits well above the +2.1% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Julys. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, December, and September.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +3.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −3.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +3.7% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade