The takeaway
Tiptree Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in August (+6.9%) and softest in December (−1.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −1.4%, roughly 3.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Tiptree Inc's most dependable month has been August, higher in 8 of 10 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+6.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−3.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Tiptree Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Tiptree Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 100% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. August stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Augusts, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+6.9%) and median (+6.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 7.5% spread), and even its worst August in 10 years lost only 6.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and May have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in July, September, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −21.3% July in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
August has now closed higher 7 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Augusts run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (August, +6.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −1.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +6.9% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade