The takeaway
Talen Energy Corporation shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in July (+16.7%) and softest in October (−1.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +16.7%, about +14.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Talen Energy Corporation's most dependable month has been July, higher in 3 of 3 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+14.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Talen Energy Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Talen Energy Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 3 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 3 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+16.7%) runs well ahead of the median (+7.7%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 12.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +14.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the March-through-September window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−1.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (July, +16.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +16.7% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade