The takeaway
Tilray Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in July (+11.6%) and softest in May (−8.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 63% of years, averaging +11.6%, about +9.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Tilray Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 5 of 8 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 14% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+36.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−10.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Tilray Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Tilray Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 63% across the last 8 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The year leans July's way without overwhelming the rest of it: the stock has closed higher in 5 of 8 Julys, its most dependable month if not a dominant one.
Its average (+11.6%) and median (+10.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 22.8% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +9.5 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
On the other side of the ledger, May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 8 months that average a loss (−8.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, May, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −55.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 8-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (July, +11.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −8.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +11.6% and closing higher in 5 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade