The takeaway
TransMedics Group Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in June (+17.0%) and softest in October (−13.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 43% of years, averaging 0.0%, roughly 2.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
TransMedics Group Inc's most dependable month has been June, higher in 7 of 7 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+18.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−14.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is TransMedics Group Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating TransMedics Group Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 7 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. June stands out, higher in all 7 Junes, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+17.0%) and median (+12.7%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 10.6% spread), and even its worst June in 7 years lost only 4.9% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +16.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and April have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−13.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, September, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −43.4% October in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
June has now closed higher 7 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 7-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2019 its best month (June, +17.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −13.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +17.0% and closing higher in all 7 years on record since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −13.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade