The takeaway
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+6.4%) and softest in November (−4.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 40% of years, averaging −3.1%, roughly 5.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares's most dependable month has been September, higher in 9 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+7.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−6.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: September, up in 9 of 10 Septembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+6.4%) and median (+5.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 9.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.5 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and April have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−4.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, March, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −32.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
A long streak recently broke — September had risen 9 years straight before a −11.5% reading in 2025. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Septembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +6.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −4.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +6.4% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade