Tutor Perini Corporation

Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 8 of 10 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.

Its average (+3.1%) and median (+2.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 8.6% spread), and even its worst July in 10 years lost only 9.1% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.0 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.

Only June comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: January is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+1.4%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −51.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.

July has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.

The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.