The takeaway
TPG Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in July (+12.6%) and softest in April (−6.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +12.6%, about +10.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
TPG Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 4 of 4 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+10.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−7.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is TPG Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating TPG Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in all 4 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+12.6%) and median (+12.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 9.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +10.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — June–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−6.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, March, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −17.7% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (July, +12.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −6.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +12.6% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade