The takeaway
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in July (+4.5%) and softest in September (−4.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 89% of years, averaging +4.5%, about +2.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 9 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 22% of the time.
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+6.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−8.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is TPG RE Finance Trust Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating TPG RE Finance Trust Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 89% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 9 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
A typical July brings +3.1%, a shade under the +4.5% average. Few months are steadier: July's returns vary by just 5.2% year to year, and even its worst July in 9 years lost only 3.7% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.4 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the May-through-July window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−4.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −68.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (July, +4.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −4.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +4.5% and closing higher in 8 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade