The takeaway
TransUnion shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+6.2%) and softest in September (−4.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +5.6%, about +3.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
TransUnion's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+4.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−6.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is TransUnion’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating TransUnion’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
The headline flatters a touch — its +6.2% average sits well above the +3.7% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Novembers. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 10.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.9 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and April have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−4.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, September, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −37.9% October in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +6.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −4.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +6.2% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade