The takeaway
Tractor Supply Company shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+6.8%) and softest in September (−3.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.9%, roughly 1.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Tractor Supply Company's most dependable month has been November, higher in 9 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+4.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−3.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Tractor Supply Company’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Tractor Supply Company’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+6.8%) and median (+5.7%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and April have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−3.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, December, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −19.9% September in 2016 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
November has now closed higher 6 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +6.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −3.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +6.8% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade