The takeaway
GraniteShares 1.25x Long Tsla Daily ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in September (+17.9%) and softest in October (−10.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 67% of years, averaging +2.8%, about +0.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
GraniteShares 1.25x Long Tsla Daily ETF's most dependable month has been September, higher in 3 of 4 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+19.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−11.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is GraniteShares 1.25x Long Tsla Daily ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating GraniteShares 1.25x Long Tsla Daily ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, September has closed higher 75% of the time versus 75% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: September, up in 3 of 4 Septembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+17.9%) and median (+16.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 20.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +18.0 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and April have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−10.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −44.0% December in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (September, +17.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −10.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +17.9% and closing higher in 3 of 4 years since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade