The takeaway
AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in October (+2.1%) and softest in September (−21.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 25% of years, averaging −9.7%, roughly 11.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF's most dependable month has been October, higher in 2 of 4 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+13.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−21.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, October has closed higher 50% of the time versus 50% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The calendar barely registers for this fund. Even its firmest month, October, has risen in only 2 of 4 Octobers — nothing recurs reliably enough to lean on.
Its roughest month on record was a −56.1% November in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The honest read is that the calendar is close to noise here — better treated as background than a reason to act. With a short 4-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (October), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (October, +2.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −21.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +2.1% and closing higher in 2 of 4 years since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −21.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade