The takeaway
Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in March (+4.3%) and softest in September (−12.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 33% of years, averaging −4.7%, roughly 6.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares's most dependable month has been March, higher in 2 of 3 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+6.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−14.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, March has closed higher 67% of the time versus 67% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward March — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 2 of 3 Marches.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.3%) and median (+3.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: March's returns vary by just 7.4% year to year. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.3 points on average.
On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 8 months that average a loss (−12.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in May, September, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −40.7% January in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 4-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (March, +4.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −12.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +4.3% and closing higher in 2 of 3 years since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −12.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade