The takeaway
YieldMax TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in May (+13.8%) and softest in October (−6.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 67% of years, averaging +1.2%, roughly 0.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
YieldMax TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 3 of 3 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+13.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−7.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is YieldMax TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating YieldMax TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, May has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — May. It has closed higher in all 3 Mays, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+13.8%) and median (+19.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even May ranges by 8.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +13.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
May anchors a run, too: the April-through-July window has been the fund's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−6.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −32.2% December in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a fund this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (May, +13.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −6.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +13.8% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade