The takeaway
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+3.5%) and softest in October (−2.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.9% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF's most dependable month has been January, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−6.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares MSCI Turkey ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares MSCI Turkey ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 40% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in 7 of 10 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +3.5% average sits well above the +1.9% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Januaries. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — November–January forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−2.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −26.1% August in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, January's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (January, +3.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −2.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +3.5% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade