The takeaway
ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+3.4%) and softest in July (−6.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 10% of years, averaging −6.2%, roughly 8.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares UltraShort Russell2000's most dependable month has been March, higher in 6 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+2.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−11.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares UltraShort Russell2000’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares UltraShort Russell2000’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 60% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward March — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 6 of 10 Marches.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.4%) and median (+2.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 11.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.3 points on average.
The weaker half of the year is plainer: July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−6.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −38.0% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (March, +3.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −6.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +3.4% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade