The takeaway
Ternium SA ADR shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+3.6%) and softest in August (−2.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +5.3%, about +3.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Ternium SA ADR's most dependable month has been October, higher in 7 of 10 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+3.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in June (−3.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Ternium SA ADR’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Ternium SA ADR’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 40% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and October is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Octobers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.6%) and median (+3.2%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: October's returns vary by just 7.7% year to year. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.6 points on average. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
October anchors a run, too: the October-through-December window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, August has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in June and August. Its roughest month on record was a −34.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, October's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (October, +3.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, −2.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +3.6% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade