The takeaway
MorningStar Partners, L.P. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in January (+3.4%) and softest in October (−5.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 67% of years, averaging +0.9%, roughly 1.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
MorningStar Partners, L.P.'s most dependable month has been January, higher in 2 of 3 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−8.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is MorningStar Partners, L.P.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating MorningStar Partners, L.P.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, January has closed higher 67% of the time versus 67% across the last 3 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
January looks the standout, up in 2 of 3 Januaries — yet the appeal is lumpy, leaning on the occasional blow-out year rather than dependable strength.
The headline flatters a touch — its +3.4% average sits well above the +1.8% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Januaries. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — January–March forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−5.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, December, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −14.2% December in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Hold it loosely, then: the January tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (January, +3.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −5.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +3.4% and closing higher in 2 of 3 years since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade