The takeaway
iShares MSCI UAE ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+4.5%) and softest in May (−1.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 90% of years, averaging +4.5%, about +2.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares MSCI UAE ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 9 of 10 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+2.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares MSCI UAE ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares MSCI UAE ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 9 of 10 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+4.5%) and median (+5.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.2% spread), and even its worst July in 10 years lost only 0.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.4 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: March, April, and December have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, May, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −22.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +4.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −1.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +4.5% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade