The takeaway
United States Natural Gas Fund LP shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in August (+5.7%) and softest in December (−9.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 30% of years, averaging +1.9% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
United States Natural Gas Fund LP's most dependable month has been August, higher in 9 of 10 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+5.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−10.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is United States Natural Gas Fund LP’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating United States Natural Gas Fund LP’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — August. It has closed higher in 9 of 10 Augusts, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+5.7%) and median (+5.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: August's returns vary by just 6.1% year to year, and even its worst August in 10 years lost only 5.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — August has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.4 points on average. Few peers keep such company in August — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — April and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−9.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in December, February, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −36.2% June in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
One run worth flagging just ended: a 9-year streak of positive Augusts was snapped by a −5.8% close in 2025. The pattern has softened of late, August's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a fund this dependable in August, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (August), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (August, +5.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −9.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +5.7% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade