The takeaway
USA Rare Earth, Inc. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in April (+34.0%) and softest in March (−23.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +7.2%, about +5.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s most dependable month has been April, higher in 2 of 2 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+32.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−24.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is USA Rare Earth, Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating USA Rare Earth, Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent April history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: April, up in all 2 Aprils while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+34.0%) and median (+34.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even April ranges by 33.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +32.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, June, and July have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−23.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, November, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −46.3% March in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (April), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (April, +34.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −23.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +34.0% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −23.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade