The takeaway
United States Commodity Index Fund LP shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+1.1%) and softest in November (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.2%, roughly 0.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
United States Commodity Index Fund LP's most dependable month has been October, higher in 9 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−3.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is United States Commodity Index Fund LP’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating United States Commodity Index Fund LP’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and October is the anchor — it has closed higher in 9 of 10 Octobers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.1%) and median (+1.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: October's returns vary by just 2.3% year to year. Set against the S&P 500, mind, October is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
October anchors a run, too: the April-through-October window has been the fund's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, November has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, March, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −18.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
October has now closed higher 7 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (October), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — October is the firmest (+1.1%) and November the softest (−1.3%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
October has been the strongest, averaging +1.1% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade