The takeaway
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+1.1%) and softest in December (−0.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 30% of years, averaging −0.3%, roughly 2.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund's most dependable month has been October, higher in 8 of 10 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+1.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−2.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and October is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 10 Octobers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.1%) and median (+0.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Set against the S&P 500, mind, October is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
October anchors a run, too: the August-through-October window has been the fund's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, December is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, November, and April.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (October), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — October is the firmest (+1.1%) and December the softest (−0.4%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
October has been the strongest, averaging +1.1% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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