The takeaway
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+4.9%) and softest in March (−2.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 90% of years, averaging +3.2%, about +1.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares's most dependable month has been November, higher in 9 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+2.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−3.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in 9 of 10 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.9%) and median (+3.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the October-through-January window has been the fund's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −24.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +4.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −2.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +4.9% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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