The takeaway
Telefonica Brasil SA ADR shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in December (+0.8%) and softest in February (−4.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +3.2%, about +1.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Telefonica Brasil SA ADR's most dependable month has been December, higher in 7 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+6.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−3.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Telefonica Brasil SA ADR’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Telefonica Brasil SA ADR’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 40% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: December, up in 7 of 10 Decembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+0.8%) and median (+1.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.3% spread). Set against the S&P 500, mind, December is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages December only about 58% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and September have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−4.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, April, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −22.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, December's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: December aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (December), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (December, +0.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −4.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +0.8% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade