The takeaway
Valero Energy Corporation shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+1.3%) and softest in February (+0.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +1.3%, roughly 0.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Valero Energy Corporation's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+4.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in June (−1.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Valero Energy Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Valero Energy Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+1.3%) and median (+1.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 6.0% spread). That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and May have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in June, July, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −33.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+1.3%) and February the softest (+0.2%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +1.3% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.2%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade