The takeaway
Winmark Corporation shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+5.4%) and softest in May (+0.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +3.3%, about +1.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Winmark Corporation's most dependable month has been September, higher in 8 of 10 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+5.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−3.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Winmark Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Winmark Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. September stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Septembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+5.4%) and median (+6.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 4.8% spread), and even its worst September in 10 years lost only 2.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +5.6 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
A few other months pull their weight: February, April, and June have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, May is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+0.8%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, January, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −36.7% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +5.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, +0.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +5.4% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.8%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade