The takeaway
Watsco Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+3.7%) and softest in February (−1.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +5.1%, about +2.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Watsco Inc's most dependable month has been March, higher in 7 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+2.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Watsco Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Watsco Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. March stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Marches, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+3.7%) and median (+3.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.3% spread). Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: March has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, April, and June have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, December, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −14.4% October in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
March has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Marches run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (March, +3.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +3.7% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade