The takeaway
Communication Services Select Sector SPDR® Fund shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in November (+3.3%) and softest in October (−1.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 75% of years, averaging +1.7% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Communication Services Select Sector SPDR® Fund's most dependable month has been November, higher in 6 of 8 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+4.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Communication Services Select Sector SPDR® Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Communication Services Select Sector SPDR® Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 6 of 8 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+3.3%) and median (+4.7%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.0 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — November–January forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −15.5% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (November, +3.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +3.3% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade