The takeaway
ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in January (+5.0%) and softest in February (−2.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 63% of years, averaging +2.6% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF's most dependable month has been January, higher in 7 of 8 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+5.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 88% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in 7 of 8 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+5.0%) and median (+4.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 8.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +5.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — October–January forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−2.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −16.4% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (January, +5.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +5.0% and closing higher in 7 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade