The takeaway
Bondbloxx ETF Trust - BondBloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in November (+2.8%) and softest in October (−2.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 33% of years, averaging +1.0%, roughly 1.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Bondbloxx ETF Trust - BondBloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 4 of 4 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−3.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Bondbloxx ETF Trust - BondBloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Bondbloxx ETF Trust - BondBloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in all 4 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+2.8%) and median (+2.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +0.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and June have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−2.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, April, and December.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2022 its best month (November, +2.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −2.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +2.8% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade