The takeaway
Yalla Group Ltd shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in November (+18.1%) and softest in February (−9.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +4.2%, about +2.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Yalla Group Ltd's most dependable month has been November, higher in 5 of 6 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
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| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+15.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−8.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Yalla Group Ltd’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Yalla Group Ltd’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 5 of 6 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +18.1% average sits well above the +9.0% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Novembers. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 27.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +15.8 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: June and July have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−9.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, May, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −30.7% July in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
A long streak recently broke — November had risen 5 years straight before a −7.3% reading in 2025. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 6-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (November, +18.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −9.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +18.1% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade