The takeaway
Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+7.4%) and softest in March (−5.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 40% of years, averaging +0.7%, roughly 1.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares's most dependable month has been October, higher in 6 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+6.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−7.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 80% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The year leans October's way without overwhelming the rest of it: the fund has closed higher in 6 of 10 Octobers, its most dependable month if not a dominant one.
A typical October brings +4.6%, a shade under the +7.4% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even October ranges by 24.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: October has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.4 points above the index.
A few other months pull their weight: April and December have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−5.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, January, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −59.0% November in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (October), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (October, +7.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −5.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +7.4% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade