The takeaway
Amplify High Income ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+1.9%) and softest in October (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 80% of years, averaging +1.9% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Amplify High Income ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Amplify High Income ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Amplify High Income ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 8 of 10 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+1.9%) and median (+1.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.1% spread), and even its worst July in 10 years lost only 1.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — April–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −23.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +1.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +1.9% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade