The takeaway
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+6.4%) and softest in October (−3.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 44% of years, averaging +0.2%, roughly 2.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc's most dependable month has been April, higher in 7 of 9 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+4.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−4.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 60% of the time versus 78% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: April, up in 7 of 9 Aprils while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+6.4%) and median (+7.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 6.5% spread), and even its worst April in 10 years lost only 4.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
No other month comes close to matching it — the rest of the calendar is unremarkable by comparison. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −30.3% October in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (April), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +6.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −3.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +6.4% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade