The takeaway
NASDAQ TEST STOCK shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in February (+19.5%) and softest in May (−16.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +34.1%, about +32.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
NASDAQ TEST STOCK's most dependable month has been February, higher in 5 of 8 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 13% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | ||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | — | — | ||||||||||
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+32.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−17.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is NASDAQ TEST STOCK’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating NASDAQ TEST STOCK’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 40% of the time versus 63% across the last 9 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a feast-or-famine calendar. February reads as the strong month, higher in 5 of 8 Februaries, but the tale is one of a few outsized years more than steady gains.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+19.5%) runs well ahead of the median (+0.1%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even February ranges by 71.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — February has outpaced the S&P 500 by +19.8 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — February is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 49% of names gain ground.
At the other end of the calendar, May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−16.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, December, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −88.7% March in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, February's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
Hold it loosely, then: the February tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on. With a short 9-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (February), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (February, +19.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −16.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +19.5% and closing higher in 5 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −16.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade