The takeaway
ADT Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in November (+5.4%) and softest in March (−9.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +5.1%, about +3.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
ADT Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 6 of 8 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 38% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+3.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−10.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is ADT Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ADT Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 6 of 8 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+5.4%) and median (+5.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 8.0% spread). Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — September–November forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−9.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, August, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −34.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, November's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (November, +5.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −9.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +5.4% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade