The takeaway
Adaptive Alpha Opportunities ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in May (+3.9%) and softest in April (−1.6%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 80% of years, averaging +2.5% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Adaptive Alpha Opportunities ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 5 of 5 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+3.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−3.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Adaptive Alpha Opportunities ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Adaptive Alpha Opportunities ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: May, up in all 5 Mays while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+3.9%) and median (+4.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−1.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, December, and March.
May has now closed higher 5 years running.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (May, +3.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −1.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +3.9% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade